Stochastic Analysis Of Egress Simulations

Jullien Quentin, Université Paris-Est, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment (CSTB), Safety, Structures & Fire Department, Expertise, Regulatory Advice & Research Division

Abstract

The use of egress simulation models in performance-based analysis relies on the confidence in the input and output data. These data strongly depend on a large number of parameters. The study presented here focuses on the statistical aspects of these data, especially the population behavioral parameters which are the most likely to be scattered. The study proposes a method to analyze the statistical aspects of an egress simulation model. The method is based on statistical estimations of the distribution quantiles of the output parameters and can be applied to stochastic simulations results. It provides quantitative information on the key output parameters dispersion, such as Required Safe Egress Time (RSET). It also gives a justification to the required number of simulations and input parameters precision to ensure a relevant output precision level. It gives access to quantitative criteria to compare experimental and numerical data. This method will be applied to analyze case studies simulated with BuildingExodus.

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