S.M.V. Gwynne – Movement Strategies
It is critical to be skeptical of computational evacuation models – as it is with all modelling efforts. However, it is just as important to understand what constitutes a model. This presentation covers various approaches to modelling. The key is that skepticism and curiosity is maintained (or increased) but applied to all modelling endeavours.
The Conceptual Model of Evacuee Response
- Testing the basic understanding –logic, but also scope, refinement, moderation, translation, etc.
- The benefits and dangers of an analogy
- Example: The Procedural Implications of Adopting Different Conceptual Models
- At a very minimum – for Scenario Development
- State initial assumptions (based on conceptual understanding) and derive consequences that follow
- Example: The Impact of Social Groups on Large Crowds
Inductive Approaches – The Bread and Butter of computational modelling
- Projecting outcomes with a reasonable degree of confidence based on the credibility of our conceptual understanding and the process by which it translates initial conditions to a future projected state.
- Importance of understanding the active agents and the modes by which emergent conditions are produced – agent decision-making and agent interaction
- Example: The stages of evacuee interaction with emergency signs
Abductive Approaches – Pragmatic attempts to develop candidate explanations
- Imperfect by definition – affirming the consequent by design
- Assessing behavioural explanations by bounding the conditions
- Demonstration: Testing candidate explanations
The cascading impact of evacuation models on fire modelling
- The evil door and its pervasive impact on outcomes